Todays Crude Oil Swing Chart Technical Forecast

A sustained move under $53.61 will signal the presence of sellers showing a bull trap. This may trigger a labored break with potential targets weighing $52.40, $51.29 and $50.66. If $50.66 fails as support discover the supplying extend in to the main retracement zone at $50.28 to $48.83.

A sustained move over $54.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. This will also indicate that Friday’s move was fueled by fake buying rather and just buy stops. The upside momentum is not going to continue and testing $54.98 is a pipe dream for buyers from fuelled trade talks.

Lifting Iranian sanctions will have a significant impact on the entire world oil market. Iran’s oil reserves would be the fourth largest on the planet with a production capacity of approximately 4 million barrels per day, making them the second biggest producer in OPEC. Iran’s oil reserves take into account approximately 10% with the world’s total proven petroleum reserves, on the rate in the 2006 production the reserves in Iran could last 98 years. More than likely Iran will add about 2million barrels of oil per day to the market and according to the world bank this may resulted in the decline in the oil price by $10 per barrel next year.

Based on Data from OPEC, at the beginning of 2013 the greatest oil deposits are in Venezuela being 20% of global oil reserves, Saudi Arabia 18%, Canada 13% and Iran 9%. Due to the characteristics from the reserves it’s not always possible to bring this oil on the surface because of the limitation on extraction technologies as well as the cost to extract.

As China’s increased need for gas instead of fossil fuel further reduces overall demand for oil, the rise in supply from Iran and also the continuation Saudi Arabia putting more oil to the market should see the price drop on the next 12 months and several analysts are predicting prices will get into the $30’s.

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